Assessment of Vulnerable Houses in Populated Areas along a River Valley due to Possible Severe Flooding for Long-term Flood Safety Management

Floods are one of the key natural disasters that have always been problematic for human beings. The extreme flooding can cause severe damage to both the people and property located in an area. This study focusses on the precise assessment of vulnerable houses in both rural and urban populated areas along a river valley in case of high flooding. For this purpose, about 286 km long study reach f Jhelum River downstream of Mangla dam in Pakistan has been chosen for analysis. Based on the available data, unsteady flow modeling on the study reach has been carried out by using the model IKE-11. The flood routing was performed for the highest past flood event i.e. 1992 flood having maximum outflow of 26,293 m3 /s from Mangla dam. Based on the extension of flooding and existing position of houses, the number of people at risk (PAR) and vulnerable houses along the study reach has been estimated using the 2017-census data. Total estimated PAR is about 1785483. The total number of vulnerable houses has been estimated to be about 278186 out of which 56.5% are rural houses and 43.5% are urban houses. Further as per available data, the assessment of vulnerable houses in rural and urban populated areas has been categorized with respect to the materials used in their roofs and walls. The results of this research would definitely help in improving the existing flood protection measures along the Jhelum River as well as in planning new useful flood resilient measures.