Heterogeneous Decarbonization: Technology-Specific Renewable Shocks and Asymmetric Emissions Responses Across the Global Economy

Abstract Why do technology-specific changes in renewable output produce different emissions and economic outcomes across economies? This paper examines this question using a technology-disaggregated GTAP-E-Power model covering eight regions and twenty-two sectors, complemented by panel evidence from 56 countries over 2000–2023 and machine-learning robustness analysis. The structural experiments impose region-specific counterfactual output changes separately for solarP, windBL, and otherBL zero-emission generation across all eight regions. Under the SolarP experiment, production-based emissions associated with the modeled activity increase by $$39.39\%$$ in the United States but decline by $$32.04\%$$ in India, reflecting input and cross-technology reallocation toward emissions-generating production in the United States, in contrast to broader production contraction in India. Trade further transmits these adjustments through relative prices and export flows, generating heterogeneous welfare effects. Complementing these structural results, panel estimates associate a $$1\%$$ increase in renewable energy consumption with an average $$0.30\%$$ reduction in emissions, while income-group estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity. Taken together, the results show that the average negative renewable–emissions relationship does not imply uniform technology-specific outcomes. Regional production, substitution, and trade structures determine how renewable-output changes are transmitted into emissions and welfare.