LAB #4940 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% (+4.6pp, n=113) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would only bite on trades whose entry timestamp falls in a DISTRIBUTION quarter-phase, and the current window is a single ~8-day slice (Sep 3–11) — almost certainly one phase, not a mix. If that slice is DISTRIBUTION, the filter changes nothing here (all 10 trades already pass); if it isn't, it would have blocked all 10, including the two USDCHF/USDCAD wins, turning a 2W-3L-5-rejected window into 0 trades. Either way, the +4.6pp claim is not testable on this window — n=113 in the backtest vs n=10 here means the live sample carries essentially zero evidential weight. Net expected PnL delta on this window: 0 or negative, never positive. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: A +4.6pp win-rate lift on n=113 is roughly 5 extra wins — well inside one standard deviation of binomial noise (SE ≈ 4.4pp), so t Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com