Is Ukraine to Blame for Rising Diesel Prices in the US? A Test of the Trump Thesis

In October 2026, US President Donald Trump blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for the rising price of diesel in the United States. Using event study methodologies and parametric and non-parametric testing, we examine this thesis. Our results show that Ukrainian strikes had a minor negative effect on oil prices across three different fuel oils. On the other hand, geopolitical events connected with the US war on Iran, and in particular Iranian strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, were highly significantly correlated with much higher prices.

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Publication Details

Published
2026-10-31
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/hb97e_v1
Primary Topic
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Type
preprint
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preprint

Is Ukraine to Blame for Rising Diesel Prices in the US? A Test of the Trump Thesis

Christopher Andrew Hartwell, Elena Hubschmid
Market Dynamics and Volatility
preprint

Is Ukraine to Blame for Rising Diesel Prices in the US? A Test of the Trump Thesis

Christopher Andrew Hartwell, Elena Hubschmid
preprint en

Abstract

In October 2026, US President Donald Trump blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for the rising price of diesel in the United States. Using event study methodologies and parametric and non-parametric testing, we examine this thesis. Our results show that Ukrainian strikes had a minor negative effect on oil prices across three different fuel oils. On the other hand, geopolitical events connected with the US war on Iran, and in particular Iranian strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, were highly significantly correlated with much higher prices.

Market Dynamics and Volatility
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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Is Ukraine to Blame for Rising Diesel Prices in the US? A Test of the Trump Thesis — Christopher Andrew Hartwell, Elena Hubschmid · (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS