Romania’s frontline position and the expansion of geopolitical agency in the Black Sea region after 2022

The February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia changed the security environment along Europe’s eastern frontier and heightened the strategic significance of states bordering the conflict zone. This article explores how Romania has turned its position as a peripheral frontier state into an opportunity to increase its regional geopolitical agency since 2022. It examines how Romania has used its heightened strategic exposure and institutional embeddedness within NATO and the European Union to develop a more active regional role. The paper uses a qualitative single-case research design based on document analysis and process tracing of Romanian, Ukrainian, NATO and EU documents, with pre-2022 material used to establish the baseline. The analysis is organized around four interconnected areas: defence cooperation, regional diplomacy, connectivity and infrastructure, and energy and wider resilience. The findings suggest that Romania’s increased strategic importance since 2022 has been accompanied by a discernible expansion of its regional role. This can also be seen in its contributions to NATO's eastern flank, its bilateral security partnerships with Ukraine, its regional transport and logistics initiatives, as well as its energy and resilience cooperation. The analysis shows that Romania's geopolitical agency is institutionally embedded and shaped by the interaction between its geographical position, national capabilities and membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions, rather than being exercised autonomously. The Romanian case illustrates that greater geopolitical vulnerability can also provide opportunities for greater geopolitical agency when supported by appropriate institutional access and strategically valuable resources.