Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Climate, Land Cover, and the Abundance and Distribution of Elephants and Giraffes in Meru National Park, Kenya (1995-2025)

Climate variability and land-cover change can alter forage, water availability, and habitat connectivity for large herbivores in semi-arid protected areas. However, long-term evidence that jointly characterises these environmental changes and wildlife patterns remains limited for Meru National Park, Kenya. This study examined spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall, temperature, land use/land cover (LULC), and the distribution and abundance of African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) and reticulated giraffes (Giraffa reticulata) between 1995 and 2025. The study integrated CHIRPS rainfall data, available temperature records, Landsat imagery, historical wildlife census records, 2024-2025 field observations, aerial total counts, ground road counts, and GPS sightings. Landsat-based LULC classification was undertaken for 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2025, while seasonal climate and wildlife records were compared descriptively across the same periods. Forest cover declined from 425.06 km² in 1995 to 95.88 km² in 2025, a 77.4% reduction, whereas open grassland expanded from 409.99 km² to 642.53 km² (56.7%) and bare land increased from 32.24 km² to 129.01 km². Elephant abundance increased from 260 individuals in 1995 to 659 in 2015 before declining to 418 in 2025. Giraffe abundance declined from 2,100 individuals in 1995 to 193 in 2005, then later recovered to 1,297 in 2015, and dropped again to 528 in 2025. In 2025, both species were more widely distributed during the wet season but concentrated near water sources and shaded habitats during the dry season. The study demonstrates coincident long-term changes in climate, habitat structure, and megaherbivore patterns; it does not infer causation from these descriptive comparisons. The findings support restoration of woody habitats, protection of dry-season water sources, maintenance of functional movement corridors, and integrated long-term ecological monitoring in Meru National Park.