Nominal and real cigarette Price trends from a global dataset, 2008-2024 and implications for the World Health Organization's 3 by 35 initiative to tax unhealthy products

Abstract In July 2025, WHO launched the “3 by 35” Initiative calling on countries to increase real prices of tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks by at least 50% by 2035 to secure an additional $ 1 trillion in public revenue. We analyzed trend changes in countries’ nominal and inflation-adjusted retail cigarette prices over windows ranging from 2 to 16 years over the period 2008-2024, derived from nine editions of the World Health Organization Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic. We found over 20% of nominal cigarettes prices (and up to 40% in WHO’s African region) were sticky, that is, unchanged across successive periods. Between 2008 and 2024, inflation-adjusted international dollar cigarette prices rose at a least squares annual trend growth rate of 2·9% (95% UI 2·8–3·0%).We found real price increases of 50% or more are rare over the short term, but over a third of countries achieved this over 10-year, often without implementing a conscious strategy to raise taxes. This, combined with the finding of a strong link between excise taxes and prices, suggests that it is feasible to achieve, and even surpass WHO’s 3 by 35 call to action for tobacco if countries strategize and accelerate tobacco tax increases.