A Delphi-Based Integrated Assessment Framework for Examining Critical Success Factors in Ocean and Coastal Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

Extreme oceanic and coastal hazards, including storm surges, extreme wave events, tsu-namis, and sea-level variations, pose substantial risks to maritime safety, coastal commu-nities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. To address fragmentation in multi-hazard risk management, this study proposes an Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) for ocean and coastal multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS). A modified two-round adap-tive Delphi design with 25 multidisciplinary experts was used to evaluate 20 Critical Suc-cess Factors (CSFs) across four pillars: (1) disaster risk knowledge and management; (2) marine observations and forecasting; (3) dissemination and communication; and (4) pre-paredness for response. In Round 1, 5 of the 20 CSFs met the post-hoc statistical criterion (Median ≥ 3.0 and IQR ≤ 1.0). Four items were reformulated and re-evaluated in Round 2; all four had IQR = 1.0, but none met the criterion because their medians remained at 2.0, and their proportions of responses coded 4–5 (16.0%, 24.0%, 12.0%, and 4.0%) were un-changed from Round 1. The remaining eleven items did not meet the criterion in Round 1 and were not resubmitted. The study distinguishes post-hoc criterion fulfillment from ex-pert consensus on strategic relevance and provides a structured basis for further empirical testing of the framework.