LAB #4868 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.2% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.2% (+0.4pp, n=931) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the 10-trade live window, the FAR filter would only have touched trades whose phase-distance reading exceeded 10° — likely a subset of the 7 SHORTs (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD) rather than the USDCHF longs. Given the +0.4pp lift on n=931, the expected change here is roughly 0.04 trades' worth of outcome — statistically indistinguishable from noise, and the three CLOSED/LOSS shorts (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) would most likely have been filtered out only if their phase readings happened to be FAR, which the ledger doesn't confirm. Net PnL delta on this window is effectively zero-to-slightly-positive at best, and could be negative if a FAR-filtered trade was one of the two winners (USDCHF, USDCAD). No meaningful same-window signal either way. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: A +0. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23796714
- Primary Topic
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Type
- preprint