Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security

The article examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on the trajectory of global economic growth, the structure of employment, and the resilience of the world economy in 2016–2026. Based on a comparison of forecasts by international organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD, ILO) and industry analytics (McKinsey, PwC, IDC, Stanford HAI), and using macroeconomic modeling, scenario and sectoral analysis, the study reconstructs the ranges of the potential contribution of AI to GDP dynamics, productivity, and investment flows. The findings show that the positive effects of AI are accompanied by high macroeconomic uncertainty, exacerbate cross country and intra industry inequality, provoke a structural transformation of the labor market, and create additional threats to economic security (cyber risks, concentration of capital and computing resources, technological and regulatory fragmentation). The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive integration of macroeconomic and sectoral assessments within a single time horizon, taking into account an “AI readiness” index, which makes it possible to quantitatively characterize the asymmetry in the distribution of benefits and risks across country groups and sectors. It is demonstrated that realizing the potential of AI as a general purpose technology requires coordinated policies by governments and businesses aimed at developing human capital, modernizing digital infrastructure, and shaping institutional mechanisms that minimize social and geoeconomic risks.