Residency duration, risk perceptions, and recent PM2.5 exposure predict protective behaviors toward wildfire smoke: A comparison of recent migrants and long-term Idaho residents

Abstract The increasing threat of wildfire smoke in the American West makes understanding the psychological mechanisms underlying protective behavior crucial. This study, rooted in the psychometric paradigm of risk perception, examines how Idaho residents perceive and respond to the risks associated with wildfire smoke. A statewide survey ( n = 505) capturing key psychometric constructs, protective behaviors, and residential histories was integrated with 15 years (2009–2023) of spatially interpolated particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) exposure data and analyzed using structural equation modeling. Results show that ‘dread’, ‘knowledge’ and ‘self-efficacy’ are the most consistent predictors of protective behavior across the full-sample models. After PM 2.5 exposure variables were added, 'recent peak PM 2.5 ' exposure also was found to be positively associated with protective behavior. Exploratory subgroup analyses indicated that, among long-term Idaho residents, ‘dread’ was the only variable significantly related to protective behavior, whereas among recent migrants, ‘dread’, ‘self-efficacy’, and ‘recent peak PM 2.5 exposure’ showed significant positive associations with protective behavior. These findings highlight the affective and experiential components of risk appraisal and adaptation, are consistent with the influence of availability and recency heuristics and suggest possible habituation or shifting environmental baselines among long-term residents. The results underscore the need for risk communication strategies that account for temporal exposure histories, perceptual dynamics, and differences in residency experience, particularly as wildfire smoke increasingly becomes a chronic feature of lived experience in the American West.