Evaluation of the impact of energy policy and zero-export regulations on the economic viability and energy production performance of grid connected photovoltaic power plants in Morocco

This paper addresses the issue of regulatory limitations imposed on photovoltaic (PV) systems in Morocco, in particular the zero-export mode, which restricts the sale of surplus electricity to the grid and affects energy production and the profitability of installations. The study aims to assess the impact of these restrictions on energy production, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), of three representative PV projects in different sectors, residential (6.7 kWp), tertiary (50 kWp), and industrial (45.6 kWp). The main results show that zero export mode leads to significant losses in electricity production. The residential sector suffers a 63% drop, from 11 MWh simulated to 4 MWh actual. The tertiary sector sees its production reduced by more than 50%, from 86 MWh to 42 MWh, while the industrial sector, affected by closures on weekends and public holidays, sees its production decrease from 76 MWh to 37 MWh. These losses lead to a significant increase in the LCOE, which rises from MAD 0.238 to MAD 0.635/kWh for residential, from MAD 0.171 to MAD 0.349/kWh for tertiary, and from MAD 0.187 to MAD 0.380/kWh for industrial. Overall, the zero-export mode can reduce up to approximately 63% of the potential PV energy production and increase the LCOE by approximately 166% for the residential case and 103% - 104% for the tertiary and industrial cases, respectively, reducing the economic attractiveness of PV systems in Morocco. To mitigate these impacts, the study proposes practical solutions including passive PV design optimization, load-side management, smart export control, and battery storage to maximize self-consumption and reduce energy curtailment. These results highlight the need for energy policy reform to enable controlled surplus electricity injection into the national grid, thereby improving PV system profitability while considering grid operational constraints.