After the Aid Agency Leaves: Public-Service Continuity, Citizen Trust and Political Accountability in Fragile States

Background: It integrates published quantitative measures of financing, reach and service capacity with qualitative institutional interpretation. Objective: This article examines the institutional consequences of humanitarian programme contraction in fragile states, focusing on South Sudan. Methods: A mixed-methods research design and falsifiable hypotheses are presented for future county-level testing. The paper contributes a model of the post-aid accountability gap, in which service responsibility becomes politically visible precisely when delivery capacity contracts. Results: UNICEF reported receiving US$65.7 million against a US$278.2 million 2025 humanitarian appeal; the South Sudan Health Cluster reported reaching roughly 1.4 million people in 54 counties even amid substantial financing constraints. Conclusion: The article develops a service-continuity framework distinguishing abrupt withdrawal, negotiated handover and locally embedded co-production.