Time Series Analytical Model Educational Funding and Achievement of Sustainable Development Goal-4 in Nigeria (2015-2025): Implication on Educational Management

ABSTRACT: Education funding remains a critical determinant of educational development and the attainment of global education targets. This study examined the trend of educational funding in Nigeria and its implications for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal-4 between 2015 and 2025. The study adopted a descriptive trend analysis using secondary data obtained from national budget records and official government statistics. Two research questions and two null hypotheses guided the study, focusing on the pattern of government expenditure and the proportion of the national budget allocated to education during the period under review. Index-number analysis and descriptive trend interpretation were employed to examine changes in funding over time. Findings revealed that although the absolute amount allocated to education increased steadily from 2015 to 2025, the percentage share of the national budget devoted to education remained relatively low, averaging approximately 6.96%, which is far below the UNESCO recommended benchmark of 15–20%. The results further indicated fluctuations and occasional declines in the proportion of funding, suggesting inconsistent government commitment to education financing in Nigeria during the period. This persistent underfunding poses significant challenges for educational infrastructure development, teacher capacity building, research productivity, and equitable access to quality education, thereby threatening Nigeria’s prospects of achieving SDG-4 by 2030. The study concludes that without substantial improvement in education financing, the attainment of inclusive and equitable quality education in Nigeria may remain difficult. It therefore recommends increased budgetary allocation, diversification of funding sources through private-sector participation, improved financial accountability, and strategic investment aligned with national educational priorities. Keywords: Time-Series, Analytical, Funding and achievement, Sustainable development goal-4