LAB #4853 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 31.8% to 34.5% (+2.7pp, n=139) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 31.8% to 34.5% (+2.7pp, n=139) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the listed live window, exactly one trade matches the filter — NZDUSD SHORT via rizzy5m at 0.58415 on 2026-09-09 — and it is currently REJECTED/open, not a resolved outcome. So the filter would have changed nothing about the three realized losses (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) or the two realized wins (USDCHF, USDCAD); it only touches a position whose P&L is still undetermined. The claimed +2.7pp is therefore not verifiable against this window at all — the live sample contributes zero closed NZDUSD shorts to confirm or deny it. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: If the 34.5% vs 31.8% edge is real, it is still a losing strategy: a 34.5% win rate only pays if average win/average loss exceeds roughly 1.9:1, and nothing in the ledger establishes that. The GTX backdrop (298 losses vs 152 TP2 wins, ~33% win rate with 16 breakeven) Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com