Identification of groundwater potential zones in the Jel Basin: A geospatial-based multi-criteria evaluation

Groundwater is the main water resource of the semi-arid Jel Basin (Guercif Province, Morocco), where surface supplies are shrinking and irrigated agriculture relies increasingly on pumping.This study delineates groundwater potential zones (GWPZ) by combining remote sensing, GIS and two multi-criteria weighting schemes: the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the multiple influencing factors (MIF) method.Eight thematic layers were integrated: geology, geomorphology, slope, lineament density, drainage density, soil, land use/land cover and rainfall.The AHP pairwise matrix proved consistent (lambda_max = 8.234; CR = 0.024), with geology and rainfall carrying the highest weights (26.02% each) A weighted overlay produced one potential map per method; in the AHP map, the high-potential class is concentrated in the southern and southeastern parts of the basin.Both maps were tested against 20 boreholes classified from pumping-test discharge (13 productive, Q ≥ 2.5 L/s; 7 unproductive, Q < 1.0 L/s) using ROC analysis, and both models reached an AUC of 93.4%.Piezometric records from seven ABHM stations (2002-2020) were then examined with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope at monthly and annual scales.Significant monthly trends appeared only in March and April, and the annual series showed a significant trend (p = 0.043; Sen's slope = -0.044m/year).The results provide a spatial baseline, tested against field boreholes, to guide borehole siting and aquifer management in the Jel Basin.