A Frontier Thinking Framework for Transitioning from Resilience to Antifragility in Regenerative Urban Hospitality Ecosystems

Abstract Urban hospitality ecosystems are increasingly exposed to complex and ongoing disruptions, including climate change, technological transformations, and regional and national crises. While resilience has become the dominant paradigm for understanding the adaptive capacity of urban hospitality systems and organizations, its primary focus on recovery and stability may be insufficient in the face of ongoing uncertainty. The aim of the article is to develop a theoretical framework for the transition from resilience to antifragility in urban hospitality ecosystems by integrating approaches from frontier thinking, design thinking, regenerative development, and complex adaptive systems theory. The research methodology combines conceptual analysis of current theoretical approaches with qualitative empirical research conducted through semi-structured interviews with 28 experts from the hospitality industry, local governments, destination management organizations, and academia in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Odesa. Based on the results obtained, the paper justifies the conceptual transition from resilience to antifragility and develops the concept of Regenerative Urban Hospitality Ecosystems (RUHE) and proposes a conceptual framework for their transformation. The proposed Frontier Thinking framework explains the mechanisms of transformation of hospitality ecosystems from adaptation to regeneration through experimentation, learning, value co-creation and the development of adaptive management competencies. Antifragility is considered as a key mechanism that combines resilience with the regenerative development of urban systems. The paper contributes to the study of sustainable development by offering a new theoretical perspective on the role of hospitality ecosystems in urban restoration and regeneration, as well as practical guidelines for the formation of more adaptive and future-oriented urban systems.