Spatiotemporal Analysis of Climate Variability and Cocoa Agroforest Systems Expansion in Mbangassina, Central Cameroon

This study aimed to analyse and spatialize long-term climate variability in relation to cocoa agroforest expansion within the Mbangassina municipality, one of the major cocoaproducing areas in Central Cameroon.Daily rainfall and temperature data, that covering the period 1981-2025 were obtained from the CHIRPS v3.0 and Copernicus-Climate Data Store platforms.Landsat imagery and field observations were used to characterize land-use and landscape dynamics.Climate variability was assessed using descriptive statistics, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and Pettitt's change-point test, while spatial patterns were represented using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation.Mean annual temperature was 24.48 ± 0.70 ℃, ranging from 24.26 ℃ in 1985 to 26.02 ℃ in 2020, with a general warming tendency over the study period.Annual rainfall varied between 1257 and 1869 mm, with a mean value of 1560 ± 144 mm, and showed substantial interannual variability and an overall declining tendency.Spatially, the eastern part of Mbangassina was characterized by higher rainfall (1700-1753 mm/year) and lower temperatures (24.5-24.8℃).In contrast, the southeastern zone exhibited higher temperatures (around 25.4 ℃) and lower rainfall totals (1573-1618 mm/year).The spatial distribution of climatic conditions was associated with differences in forest cover, landscape fragmentation, and cocoa-agroforest development.Monthly climatic variability confirmed the presence of a humid equatorial climate with four unevenly distributed seasons.Because the study relies primarily on remotely sensed climatic and land-use information, the observed relationships should not be interpreted as evidence of direct causality.Findings highlights the importance of promoting sustainable agroforestry practices and forest restoration strategies to strengthen the climate resilience of cocoaproducing landscapes in Central Cameroon.