Does Nuclear Energy Technology Innovation Enhance Uranium Supply Chain Security? Evidence on Domestic Gains and Cross-Border Risks

The global revival of nuclear power raises questions about whether nuclear energy technology innovation strengthens uranium supply chain security. Using a panel of 42 nuclear-related countries and regions from 2007 to 2025, this study constructs a 16-indicator security index covering domestic production and supply, overseas equity resources, domestic resource reserves, and international trade, and measures nuclear energy technology innovation using lagged forward citations to nuclear patents. The results show that innovation significantly improves domestic uranium supply chain security (the baseline coefficient is 0.011, equivalent to about 8.3% of the sample mean). Mediation analysis identifies domestic resource expansion as the most robust channel, with weaker support for production continuity and less stable evidence for overseas equity access. The innovation–security association is stronger where financial development is lower and initial overseas equity holdings are larger. Cross-border estimates provide suggestive evidence of a positive upstream-supplier spillover and a negative downstream-customer spillover, with both results supported mainly at the 10% level. These findings suggest that nuclear innovation can improve domestic uranium security while potentially redistributing benefits and risks across the international uranium supply chain.