Under the Weather? Seasonal Effects of Temperature on Student Test Performance

As students are exposed to extreme temperatures with ever-increasing frequency, it is important to understand how such exposure affects student performance. Drawing on detailed Measures of Academic Progress (MAP) achievement data combined with high-resolution weather records, we estimate the effect of temperature on student test performance across a 6-year period for students in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Test-day heat reduces student MAP scores in the fall and spring, particularly in math. Relative to a day with temperatures in the 70s (Fahrenheit), a test day reaching the 90s reduces math scores by more than 1.5 percentiles, or roughly 0.06 standard deviations, with smaller declines in reading. Heat effects emerge at lower temperatures in the spring than in the fall, and effects are larger for male students.

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Publication Details

Journal
American Educational Research Journal
Published
2026-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3102/00028312261489233
Primary Topic
Climate Change and Health Impacts
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Under the Weather? Seasonal Effects of Temperature on Student Test Performance

Deven E. Carlson, Adam Shepardson
American Educational Research Journal
Climate Change and Health Impacts
article

Under the Weather? Seasonal Effects of Temperature on Student Test Performance

Deven E. Carlson, Adam Shepardson
article en

Abstract

As students are exposed to extreme temperatures with ever-increasing frequency, it is important to understand how such exposure affects student performance. Drawing on detailed Measures of Academic Progress (MAP) achievement data combined with high-resolution weather records, we estimate the effect of temperature on student test performance across a 6-year period for students in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Test-day heat reduces student MAP scores in the fall and spring, particularly in math. Relative to a day with temperatures in the 70s (Fahrenheit), a test day reaching the 90s reduces math scores by more than 1.5 percentiles, or roughly 0.06 standard deviations, with smaller declines in reading. Heat effects emerge at lower temperatures in the spring than in the fall, and effects are larger for male students.

American Educational Research Journal
University at Albany, State University of New York (US), University of Oklahoma (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Climate Change and Health Impacts
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