Types of Truth: How Perceived & Objective Truth Guide Belief Change

People must navigate socially transmitted information that varies from accurate to misleading or false. Here, we examined how perceived and objective truth predict belief change across three studies. In Study 1, four web-enabled frontier large language models (LLMs) and 200 human raters evaluated claims from two fact-checked datasets. LLMs outperformed humans in inter-rater agreement and discriminative sensitivity, supporting their use as a scalable proxy for objective truth. In Study 2 and 3, we applied this proxy to two large message corpora and examined its association with belief change. Perceived truth and LLM-derived objective truth independently predicted belief change. Moreover, objective truth moderated the association between perceived truth and belief change: the association between perceived truth and belief change was strongest for messages with lower objective truth and weakened as objective truth increased. These findings suggest that belief change reflects both subjective truth evaluations and the correspondence of information with reality.

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Publication Details

Published
2026-10-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/t3jxu_v1
Primary Topic
Misinformation and Its Impacts
Type
preprint
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Types of Truth: How Perceived & Objective Truth Guide Belief Change

Bradley Walker, Piers D. L. Howe, Andrew Perfors, Keith Ransom et al.
2 links
Misinformation and Its Impacts
preprint

Types of Truth: How Perceived & Objective Truth Guide Belief Change

Bradley Walker, Piers D. L. Howe, Andrew Perfors, Keith Ransom, Yoshihisa Kashima, Nicolas Fay
preprint en

Abstract

People must navigate socially transmitted information that varies from accurate to misleading or false. Here, we examined how perceived and objective truth predict belief change across three studies. In Study 1, four web-enabled frontier large language models (LLMs) and 200 human raters evaluated claims from two fact-checked datasets. LLMs outperformed humans in inter-rater agreement and discriminative sensitivity, supporting their use as a scalable proxy for objective truth. In Study 2 and 3, we applied this proxy to two large message corpora and examined its association with belief change. Perceived truth and LLM-derived objective truth independently predicted belief change. Moreover, objective truth moderated the association between perceived truth and belief change: the association between perceived truth and belief change was strongest for messages with lower objective truth and weakened as objective truth increased. These findings suggest that belief change reflects both subjective truth evaluations and the correspondence of information with reality.

Misinformation and Its Impacts
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