Monetary Policy Transmission in Uganda Central Bank Rate Lending Rates and Inflation from 2011 to 2024

The relationship between a central bank's policy rate, commercial bank lending rates and inflation is central to evaluating monetary policy transmission. This article examines that relationship in Uganda over the policy period from 2011 to 2024 through a focused review of official publications and selected theoretical and methodological literature. It distinguishes the policy signal, marketrate adjustment and the subsequent response of inflation, while recognising the central bank's own response to inflationary conditions. The review supports a qualified account of transmission: movement in lending rates can be delayed and incomplete, while inflation also reflects exchange rates, supply disturbances and expectations. These mechanisms make a contemporaneous correlation insufficient to establish policy effectiveness. The analysis distinguishes the policy observation window and the separate roles of headline and core inflation. It develops an analytical framework, a measurement matrix and a prospective empirical strategy for estimating lending-rate pass-through and evaluating inflation responses. No monthly dataset or regression output was supplied or estimated, so the findings are literature-based and no new coefficient is claimed for 2011 to 2024. The article concludes that evaluation should combine carefully defined variables, transparent data construction and explicit identification assumptions, rather than infer the strength of monetary policy from a few selected rate movements.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23812640
Primary Topic
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Type
article
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article

Monetary Policy Transmission in Uganda Central Bank Rate Lending Rates and Inflation from 2011 to 2024

NAKALEMA RESTY
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Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
article

Monetary Policy Transmission in Uganda Central Bank Rate Lending Rates and Inflation from 2011 to 2024

NAKALEMA RESTY
article en

Abstract

The relationship between a central bank's policy rate, commercial bank lending rates and inflation is central to evaluating monetary policy transmission. This article examines that relationship in Uganda over the policy period from 2011 to 2024 through a focused review of official publications and selected theoretical and methodological literature. It distinguishes the policy signal, marketrate adjustment and the subsequent response of inflation, while recognising the central bank's own response to inflationary conditions. The review supports a qualified account of transmission: movement in lending rates can be delayed and incomplete, while inflation also reflects exchange rates, supply disturbances and expectations. These mechanisms make a contemporaneous correlation insufficient to establish policy effectiveness. The analysis distinguishes the policy observation window and the separate roles of headline and core inflation. It develops an analytical framework, a measurement matrix and a prospective empirical strategy for estimating lending-rate pass-through and evaluating inflation responses. No monthly dataset or regression output was supplied or estimated, so the findings are literature-based and no new coefficient is claimed for 2011 to 2024. The article concludes that evaluation should combine carefully defined variables, transparent data construction and explicit identification assumptions, rather than infer the strength of monetary policy from a few selected rate movements.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Kampala International University (UG)
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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Monetary Policy Transmission in Uganda Central Bank Rate Lending Rates and Inflation from 2011 to 2024 — NAKALEMA RESTY · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS