Projected Climate‐Induced Range Dynamics of Alburnoides Species in Anatolia Using an Ensemble Species Distribution Model

ABSTRACT Freshwater ecosystems harbour a substantial proportion of global biodiversity yet face intense pressure from multiple stressors. Historical models indicate that Türkiye has served as a crucial hub of fish diversification since the Late Miocene, although projections suggest that freshwater biodiversity faces escalating threats. This study investigates the past, present and future distribution dynamics of 14 species belonging to the Alburnoides genus in Türkiye using an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. Habitat suitability was assessed under present conditions and future climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) by integrating species records with climatic, hydrological and environmental variables. The results show that temperature and precipitation are the dominant limiting factors determining habitat suitability for the genus Alburnoides , with species thriving in well‐oxygenated, rapidly flowing streams within a temperature range of 7°C–20°C. Future projections indicate a substantial contraction of suitable habitats across Türkiye, particularly under the high‐emission scenario (SSP5–8.5). However, a select few species are anticipated to experience range expansion as newly suitable habitats emerge under future climate scenarios. These findings highlight the necessity of formulating basin‐wide and climate change‐adaptive management methods for the preservation of biodiversity in Turkish inland water ecosystems.