Garden tourism visitor profiling: a weighted key informant approach from the Borromean Gulf, Lake Maggiore

Purpose - his study examines perceived visitor profiles and motivations within the garden tourism niche of the Borromean Gulf, Lake Maggiore, Italy, during the 2024–2025 period. It addresses a methodological and managerial problem: destinations often need to understand evolving niche demand without access to disaggregated visitor-level data. The paper therefore has a dual aim. First, it provides an exploratory, guide-reported demand profile of heritage garden visitors, highlighting perceived shifts in international source markets, demand dynamics and emerging motivational segments. Second, it evaluates whether the localized interpretive competence and field knowledge of certified tour guides can function both as a strategic destination capability and as a structured key informant source for destination intelligence. Design/methodology/approach - to capture aggregate demand trends without direct visitor surveys, this paper adopts a qualitative-exploratory research design using a provisional, volume-based weighting protocol. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 31 certified local tour guides who collectively mediate an estimated volume exceeding 100,000 annual visits across the primary botanical and historic gardens of the Borromean Gulf, Lake Maggiore. Rather than treating all informant accounts equally, the qualitative insights, thematic observations, and demographic guide-reported assessments provided by each guide were subjected to an exploratory weighting scheme based on estimated mediated visitor volumes. The data were then analyzed using Reflexive Thematic Analysis (RTA) to identify dominant patterns, perceived market shifts, and behavioural segments as reported by the informants. This approach allows the study to transform highly specialized qualitative field observations from key informants into an exploratory overview of guide-reported market demand dynamics. All quantitative estimates presented in this study are exploratory and guide-reported rather than derived from verified visitor-level data. Qualitative findings represent professional perceptions and field interpretations rather than direct measurements of tourist behaviour. Originality/value - This study offers an application of the Resource-Based View (RBV) and VRIO framework to localized human capital in niche tourism. Methodologically, it introduces an exploratory, replicable and cost-effective alternative to mass visitor surveys. This complementary approach is particularly suited to resource-constrained regional destinations lacking official attraction-level data. Practical implications - the findings reveal three emerging dynamics perceived by the guides: an increase in the weighted informant estimate of North American visitors, which informants suggest may be linked to destination substitution from overtouristed Lake Como; a consolidated senior female wellness segment which guides perceive as having above-average discretionary spending capacity and a resilient relational loyalty dynamic perceived by informants to be stabilizing DACH B2B channels. Practically, these insights enable destination management organisations (DMOs) to optimize marketing strategies, tailor guiding services, and discuss options to mitigate overtourism through strategic dispersal.