Asking those who live through it: communities’ perception on the nexus between climate change and violent extremism

The study assessed community perceptions of how climate change shapes violent extremism (VE) in the Liptako-Gourma region of the Sahel, using a mixed-methods design. The study sampled 1,017 individuals and 890 participated, a response rate of 87.5 per cent. Of these, 94.6 per cent had noticed climatic change, most often decreased rainfall, rising temperatures and longer dry spells, and 77.9 per cent reported that these changes had affected their livelihoods. Respondents described four pathways linking climate change to VE: economic hardship, direct losses in agriculture, escalation of farmer-herder tensions, and recruitment by VE groups. Respondents reported that competition over scarce resources deepened existing grievances that extremist groups then exploited. Country-stratified regression on commune-level ACLED VE event counts showed more recorded attacks in communes where respondents reported climate effects on livelihoods. The association was statistically significant in Niger (p = 0.008), with a similar pattern for the combined climatic-effects index (p = 0.018). Burkina Faso and Mali showed the same direction without statistical significance. The findings support legal frameworks for resource rights, early-warning mechanisms built on commune-level data, and the integration of climate adaptation into PVE timelines and beneficiary targeting.