Forecasting Women’s Electoral Victories: 2026 US Senate Pre-Release Model Notes

Forecasting models frequently focus on election outcomes – which parties or candidates will win, with a heavy focus on partisan outcomes. Indeed, there has been robust election forecasting for the 2026 election (Kenny and Leiter 2026). But there are many different impactful political outcomes which shape legislative behavior, and the gender of legislators is one of them. Is there a way to predict the number of women we expect to win election before the elections occur? Using a new model, UMKC students predict 10 women will be elected to the US Senate in 2026.