Winter severity and hunter observations of fawn:doe ratios predict antlered white‐tailed deer harvest success

Accurate forecasts of white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus harvest success are important for managing hunter expectations to promote continued participation in recreational harvest. From 2006 to 2024, we assessed whether annual antlered deer harvest success could be estimated using proxies for deer survival (winter severity) and recruitment (hunter observations of fawn:doe ratios) across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. Our top‐ranked model included fawn:doe ratio lagged by 2 years, winter severity index of the winter directly preceding the current hunting season, and winter severity index lagged by 1 year. The model produced annual harvest success estimates within 15% of reported harvest success. Compared to research‐based field data, our model accurately forecasted harvest success using hunter observation data and existing online weather data that was relatively easy and inexpensive to obtain. As such, we suggest that our model offers a framework for wildlife managers to rapidly predict harvest success expectations before each upcoming hunting season, which may increase hunter satisfaction and improve hunter retention.