Conservation areas in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt: a dynamic conceptual framework under land-use change

Summary The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is a biogeographical province, and its eastern sub-province faces intense pressures from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). This study integrates a systematic conservation planning approach, species distribution models and LULCC projections to identify areas that facilitate the conservation of endemic biodiversity under a dynamic conceptual framework. We selected 13 species of amphibians and mammals as surrogates, obtained their geographical distributions and analysed the distributional patterns of species richness and rarity, which showed significant concentrations in volcanic mountain systems. Historical and future LULCC models indicated a continued expansion of rainfed agriculture, potentially reaching 70% of the study area by 2050, alongside a severe reduction in temperate forest. Currently, 65% of the potential habitat of endemic species and 43% of the potential habitat of geographically rare species are affected. Under pessimistic future scenarios, losses could exceed 95%. Although the priority conservation areas identified are relatively continuous core areas at present, future projections showed considerable fragmentation. We propose a possible dynamic conservation network linking permanent nodes with dynamic nodes and temporary ecological corridors according to ecological, seasonal or anthropogenic pressures. Furthermore, this approach integrates ecological, socioeconomic and governance dimensions to reconcile conservation with sustainable practices in highly transformed landscapes.