Managing critical raw materials supply chains: aligning capabilities and strategic levers for effective strategy formation under uncertainty

Purpose This study examines how firms should design supply chain strategies to secure Critical Raw Materials (CRM), which are scarce, geographically concentrated, and exposed to geopolitical and institutional interference. These features generate structural uncertainty that amplifies normative and mimetic pressures on strategic decision-making, exposing firms to strategic isomorphic bias and leading organizations to replicate legitimized sourcing templates rather than formulate strategies calibrated to their specific dependence structure. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on Resource Dependence Theory, the study links key strategic levers (Supplier Substitutability, Discretion over the Resource, and Importance of the Resource) to underlying supply chain capabilities (resilience, agility, flexibility, sustainability, efficiency). A rank-ordered logit choice experiment with supply chain managers elicits preferred capability configurations in CRM supply scenarios, allowing the inference of the associated strategic levers while reducing strategic isomorphic bias in self-reported strategies. Findings Results show that Supplier Substitutability emerges as the dominant strategic lever for CRM-intensive supply chains. Resilience and sustainability are identified as the core capabilities underpinning this lever, supporting rapid reconfiguration of the supply base and the maintenance of legitimacy and stakeholder support under uncertainty. Originality/value The study theorizes an inside-out, bottom-up capability-driven strategy formation process, in which supply chain capabilities serve to infer effective strategic postures. It also demonstrates the value of experimental choice designs to reduce strategic and institutional bias in supply chain management research, particularly in politically sensitive domains such as the energy transition.