Trends in climate variables and their associations with crop yields in Fogera and Pawe districts, northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract Understanding climate variability and its relationship with crop productivity is important for developing appropriate adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural systems. This study assessed temporal trends and variability in rainfall and temperature and examined their associations with crop yields in Fogera and Pawe districts of northwestern Ethiopia. Climate trends during 1991–2020 were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator, while relationships between climate variables and crop yields were assessed using correlation analysis. In Fogera, annual rainfall decreased at a rate of 15.63 mm year − 1 , whereas maximum temperature (Tmax) increased slightly by 0.01°C year − 1 and minimum temperature (Tmin) decreased by 0.008°C year − 1 . In Pawe, annual rainfall also showed a decreasing trend, although it was not statistically significant, while Tmax increased significantly by 0.02°C year − 1 and Tmin decreased by 0.03°C year − 1 . Seasonal analyses showed substantial variability in rainfall and temperature, with particularly strong rainfall concentration during the main rainy season. Crop–climate relationships varied among crops and between districts. In Fogera, maize and finger millet yields were negatively correlated with rainfall, whereas rice and teff showed weak positive correlations. In Pawe, the yield of most crops was positively correlated with rainfall, while rice yield showed a weak negative association. Relationships between Tmax, Tmin, and crop yields also differed among crops. Overall, the findings demonstrate considerable spatial and temporal climate variability and crop‐specific climate–yield associations, emphasizing the need for location‐specific adaptation and water management strategies in rainfed production systems.