An Uncertainty-Aware Demand-Condition Screening Framework for EV Battery Systems: Fixed-Reference Analysis and Applicability Limits

Cross-country EV-battery indicators require scrutiny before they can support physical or policy conclusions. We examine the proposed demand-condition gap (DCG) through a methodological stress test and measurement admissibility assessment for 30 countries in 2022–2024. Fixed national-reference scaling changes 11 positive country means under the annual-reference scale to eight. Five of these eight lack all three archived condition-record indicators, and all eight lack charging entries. Fixed 95th- and 99th-percentile upper anchors yield 20 and 16 positives; one-field contrasts identify demand-scale normalization as the largest sign-changing contrast. All ten tested settings retain positive weights on every condition and demand term, preserving eight positives, whereas 66 term-exclusion stresses yield eight to 29. Replacing annual mineral-score completion by one retrospective reference-period median leaves four positives and changes the historical pattern. Conditional support bounds expose partial identification rather than calibrated measurement uncertainty. The analysis identifies properties of the constructed statistic that the data support. It also specifies the evidence required for subsequent material-flow and closed-loop supply chain models. Mathematical stability in selected scenarios does not validate national shortage, supply security or decision benefits.