Trump’s Second Presidency: A Public Perspective

Donald Trump’s second presidency has generated intense controversy among policymakers,investors, and the public. Existing research has largely examined specific policies ormeasured public opinion through surveys distinguishing support from opposition. UsingGoogle Trends data from January 2025 to September 2026, this study examines the drivers ofpublic attention to Trump, associated political narratives, and cross-national spillover. First,attention peaks are associated with major political events and policy developments, includingexecutive actions, immigration, government restructuring, trade disputes, social policies, andinternational conflicts. Second, opposition-oriented narratives exhibit a more consistentrelation with overall attention to Trump than supporter-oriented narratives, such as MakeAmerica Great Again, America First, and religiously framed support, whose associations varyacross political circumstances. Third, there are different patterns of political attentionspillover. In Australia, Trump-related attention has a stronger and more persistent predictiverelation with Pauline Hanson than with Anthony Albanese. In the United Kingdom, thecorresponding relations with Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer are broadly similar, althoughtheir lag structures differ. These findings suggest that political attention spillovers depend onboth ideological affinity and domestic political and diplomatic contexts. This study offers anovel framework for examining public attention beyond conventional measures of politicalapproval and provides a foundation for future research on public narratives, policypreferences, and government decision-making.

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Publication Details

Published
2026-10-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/cwjsr_v1
Primary Topic
Populism, Right-Wing Movements
Type
preprint
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Trump’s Second Presidency: A Public Perspective

Kerry Liu
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Populism, Right-Wing Movements
preprint

Trump’s Second Presidency: A Public Perspective

Kerry Liu
preprint en

Abstract

Donald Trump’s second presidency has generated intense controversy among policymakers,investors, and the public. Existing research has largely examined specific policies ormeasured public opinion through surveys distinguishing support from opposition. UsingGoogle Trends data from January 2025 to September 2026, this study examines the drivers ofpublic attention to Trump, associated political narratives, and cross-national spillover. First,attention peaks are associated with major political events and policy developments, includingexecutive actions, immigration, government restructuring, trade disputes, social policies, andinternational conflicts. Second, opposition-oriented narratives exhibit a more consistentrelation with overall attention to Trump than supporter-oriented narratives, such as MakeAmerica Great Again, America First, and religiously framed support, whose associations varyacross political circumstances. Third, there are different patterns of political attentionspillover. In Australia, Trump-related attention has a stronger and more persistent predictiverelation with Pauline Hanson than with Anthony Albanese. In the United Kingdom, thecorresponding relations with Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer are broadly similar, althoughtheir lag structures differ. These findings suggest that political attention spillovers depend onboth ideological affinity and domestic political and diplomatic contexts. This study offers anovel framework for examining public attention beyond conventional measures of politicalapproval and provides a foundation for future research on public narratives, policypreferences, and government decision-making.

Peace, justice, and strong institutions
Populism, Right-Wing Movements
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