Disentangling dynamic and thermodynamic pathways reveals nonlocal winter climate responses to historical land use and land cover change

Historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) can influence both nearby and distant climates through land–atmosphere interactions, yet its non-local climatic impacts remain poorly constrained. One possible explanation is that previous studies conflated non-local effects arising from distinct physical processes. Here we used CMIP6 models to separate the influences of large-scale circulation, thermodynamic advection, and local surface energy balance in winter surface air temperature responses to historical LULCC. We show that circulation-induced changes generate weak but significant warming over the Canada–Greenland region, with negligible signals elsewhere. After removing this dynamic component, a widespread and robust thermodynamic cooling signal emerges in the mid-latitudes due to advection, with magnitudes of ~0.3 K across hotspot regions and local areas cooling up to 1 K. Local energy contributions are smaller, mainly linked to albedo and downward longwave radiation changes. This process-based attribution significantly reduces inter-model spread, advances the mechanistic understanding of land–atmosphere interactions, and highlights the importance of considering non-local climate effects in assessments of land-use change and climate mitigation strategies.