Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Coupling and Coordination of New Industrialization, New Urbanization, and Cultivated Land Protection

There is a complex and dynamic interaction among new industrialization, new urbanization, and cultivated land protection. It is of great significance to explore the changing characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination relationship among the three to promote the high-quality and coordinated development of new industrialization, new urbanization, and cultivated land protection. Based on the theoretical analysis of the coupling and coordination mechanism of new urbanization, new industrialization, and cultivated land protection, the coupling and coordination degree model, spatial correlation analysis, panel Tobit model, and other methods were used to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination of the 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2023. Results indicated that (1) from 2010 to 2023, China’s new urbanization level and new industrialization level showed an overall upward trend, and the overall level of cultivated land protection showed a fluctuating upward trend. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the three showed a fluctuating upward change, and most areas were in the stage of primary coordination. The spatial and temporal development of coupling coordination degree was unbalanced, showing a “northeast–southwest” pattern. The coupling coordination types mainly shifted from the ZCG-lag type to the industrialization–urbanization-lag type, the urbanization–cultivated-land-protection-lag type, and the cultivated-land-protection-lag type. (3) There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the coupling coordination degree, and the spatial agglomeration was differentiated. The spatial connection strength of the coupling coordination degree presented a pattern of “eastern–central prominence, western–northeast collapse”. (4) The proportion of added value of secondary and tertiary industries to GDP, per capita disposable income of rural residents, registered population density, road density, and proportion of agriculture-related expenditure to total fiscal expenditure had a significant positive impact on the coupling coordination degree of the three, while average annual temperature and per capita water resources had a significant negative impact. The research results can provide a decision-making basis for reasonably guiding the coordinated development of the three systems.