Does Scaling Toward AGI Depend on What System-1 Lets System-2 Execute?
Progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) has largely relied on scaling a resource-intensive executive, System-2, through larger models, more data and compute, longer reasoning, and more agents. We ask whether the next stage may come instead from co-designing it with System-1, a lightweight, semantically aware predictor that evaluates candidate interactions before execution, so that System-2 acts only on those worth their cost. Our answer is a qualified yes. We study \textit{conditional interaction}, a predict--gate--execute--update loop: System-1 estimates each candidate's utility, System-2 executes those admitted by an adaptive threshold, and the outcomes update System-1. The loop spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making, and agentic tool use, with utility and cost defined by the application. Under ideal screening and equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching $1/ρ_u$, where $ρ_u$ is the density of utility-relevant interactions (cost-weighted when costs differ); prediction errors, exploration, and distribution shift reduce the saving. We bound selection regret by predictor error and the utility margin. These results motivate our central hypothesis: $ρ_u$ is a measurable coordinate of scaling efficiency and makes informative compute a better description of scaling than total compute.
Authors
- Yixiu Mao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7302-5039)
- Haoang Chi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2644-3323)
- Yiqin Lv (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1181-0212)
- Yun Qu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8467-754X)
- Yuhang Jiang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0159-2817)
- Heming Zou
- Lizhou Cai
- Yize Geng
- Xiangyang Ji
- Qi Wang
- Mengyu Ge
- Xiang Li
- Haiyan Feng
Publication Details
- Journal
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Published
- 2026-10-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.39497
- Primary Topic
- Psychiatry, Mental Health, Neuroscience
- Type
- preprint