Spatio-temporal distribution of tigers across different management zones and its conservation implications in and around Chitwan National Park, Nepal

Abstract The effectiveness of tiger Panthera tigris conservation depends on a comprehensive understanding of the species’ habitat use, movements, population size and demography. We studied the spatio-temporal distribution of a tiger population in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, across three management zones: the core area, buffer zone and adjoining forests outside the protected area. Using Bayesian spatial capture–recapture models and camera-trap data collected by Nepal’s National Tiger Survey in 2018 and 2022, we estimated that the tiger population in the Park increased by 40% overall, 23% in the core area, 65% in the buffer zone and 133% in the adjoining forests over that time. Home range size and distance moved declined for both sexes, with males displaying wider ranging behaviour compared to females, as expected. The female-to-male sex ratio increased in the buffer zone, where better habitat management has improved conditions for tigers, but it decreased in the core area and in forests adjoining the buffer zone. The majority of attacks on people occurred inside forests, close to areas with high tiger densities, whereas livestock predation was not linked to tiger density. The socio-economic impacts of tiger attacks on local people should be integrated into conservation planning to ensure the survival of tigers living alongside local communities in the long term.