A Statistical Analysis of Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections in West Africa, 1979–2025

Abstract This study examines patterns and future trajectories of voter turnout in presidential elections across West Africa from 1979 to 2025. While voter turnout is widely regarded as a key indicator of democratic performance and political legitimacy, comparative longitudinal analyses of turnout patterns within the West African subregion remain limited. Using voter turnout data from the International IDEA database, this study conducts a cross-national and temporal analysis of 14 West African states. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, and country-level linear regression models are employed to examine turnout trends, assess differences across Anglophone, Francophone, and Lusophone countries, and generate ten-year turnout projections. Findings reveal that voter turnout in West Africa is generally moderate to high but highly uneven across countries and election cycles. Rather than following a linear pattern of democratic improvement or decline, turnout is episodic and strongly conditioned by immediate political contexts such as electoral credibility, institutional trust, political competition, conflict, and civic norms. Although statistical tests show significant differences in turnout across colonial language blocs, these differences are substantively small and overshadowed by country-specific political realities. Forecast results further demonstrate that voter turnout trajectories are unlikely to converge regionally, with some countries projected to experience increases in participation while others face stagnation or decline. However, low projection reliability (R 2 ) for most countries indicates that turnout in the region is highly sensitive to political shocks and institutional changes. The study concludes that voter turnout in West Africa is best understood as a context-driven behavioural outcome shaped more by institutional credibility and socio-political dynamics than by colonial heritage or long-term structural trends.