The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance, Green Finance, and Their Coordinated Development on New Quality Productive Forces in the Construction Industry

China’s dual-carbon goals require the construction industry to overcome persistent constraints on efficiency, financing, and low-carbon transition, yet how digital inclusive finance and green finance jointly foster new quality productive forces in this sector remains underexplored. Drawing on the socio-technical deep transition framework, this study uses panel data from 30 provincial-level regions of China over 2011–2022 and applies panel vector autoregression, fixed-effects, moderating-effect, panel-threshold, and spatial Durbin models to examine dynamic effects, conditioning mechanisms, threshold effects, and spatial spillovers. Digital inclusive finance exerts a stable positive effect on new quality productive forces in the construction industry, whereas green finance is regionally heterogeneous in the short term but turns promotive over the long term. Coordinated development of the two significantly enhances new quality productive forces, and this effect is stronger in regions with higher economic development and stronger financial regulation; capital misallocation weakens it, while regional innovation capacity strengthens it. Human capital generates a threshold effect, and the coordinated development produces spatial spillovers across neighboring regions. These findings advance a finance-enabled understanding of new quality productive forces in the construction industry and underscore the importance of coordinated financial governance for sustainable industrial transformation and regional development.