Fuel Subsidy Law and Budgetary Resilience to Geopolitical Oil Shocks in Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal

Purpose: This study examines how geopolitical oil price shocks, particularly the Russia and Ukraine war and the 2026 United States and Iran conflict, affect fuel subsidy law, domestic energy pricing and budgetary resilience in Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal. Research methodology: A qualitative documentary design was adopted. Petroleum legislation, pricing regulations, budget information, official government statements, IMF country assessments and international energy market reports were analysed thematically around legal authority, price transmission, fiscal consequences and social protection. Results: The three countries distribute the same external shock in different ways. Nigeria has moved towards market pricing under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, yet the expected subsidy savings have not fully reached the budget. Ghana applies a prescribed pricing formula but still introduced a temporary price intervention in 2026. Senegal retains administrative price ceilings and estimated that energy subsidies could have reached CFAF 1,069 billion in 2026 without price adjustment, compared with CFAF 250 billion in the approved budget. Conclusions: Open ended fuel subsidies tend to convert temporary geopolitical shocks into lasting fiscal liabilities. Legally transparent, fiscally bounded and socially targeted interventions provide a more resilient path for all three countries. Limitations: The study relies on secondary documents and does not include interviews, household surveys or econometric estimation. The 2026 shock was still unfolding during the analysis. Contributions: The article proposes a comparative legal and fiscal framework built on fiscal ceilings, activation thresholds, sunset clauses, targeted social transfers and regional coordination within ECOWAS.