Pastoral Mobility as Political Bargaining: Seasonal Grazing Corridors, Local Agreements and Recurrent Violence in South Sudan

Background: Seasonal pastoral migration is often depicted as an ecological response to fluctuating pasture and water availability. Objective: This article argues that mobility is also a negotiated political arrangement in which customary authorities, cattle owners, farming communities, armed youth, local administrators and peacebuilding institutions bargain over access, compensation, security and jurisdiction. Methods: Drawing on FAOSTAT livestock estimates, public reporting by UNMISS, the United Nations Climate Security Mechanism, and a 2026 PAX qualitative report, the analysis combines reproducible descriptive statistics with process tracing and an explicitly prospective quantitative model. Results: Estimates indicate a rise in South Sudan cattle stock from 11.757 million in 2012 to 14.283 million in 2024, an approximate 21.5% increase; this national-level change is not evidence of increased conflict. Conclusion: Accounts of the Marial Bai Agreement, Kidepo Valley consultations and tensions in Lainya show the diversity of local bargaining arrangements.