LAB #4889 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 44.2% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 44.2% (+12.3pp, n=138) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would only bite on trades whose entry timestamp falls inside a quarterly ACCUMULATION phase — and the live window here (Sep 3–11, 2026) is a single ~8-day slice, so at most a handful of the 10 listed trades would be gated, not the whole set. The three CLOSED/LOSS shorts (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) are the ones you'd most want suppressed, but a quarterly-phase filter is far too coarse to selectively kill those while keeping the two USDCHF/USDCAD wins — it operates on a timescale ~10x longer than the trade window. Net expected delta on this specific window: near-zero to slightly negative, because the filter's granularity doesn't match the loss cluster's granularity. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: A +12.3pp win-rate lift on n=138 is a real-looking number, but n=138 across quarterly phases means yo Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com