Drivers of Yarn Exports in Türkiye: Anti-fragility and Stability in the Synthetic and Cotton Sectors

This study investigates the asymmetric and non-linear impacts of the real effective exchange rate (REER), inflation (INF), industrial production index (IPI), and credit default swap (CDS) premiums on Turkiye’s synthetic (SYN) and cotton yarn (CTN) exports. Covering data from January 2015 to August 2025, the research employs novel quantile-on-quantile kernel regularized least squares (QQKRLS) and quantile-on-quantile Granger causality (QQGC) methodologies to capture regime-dependent dynamics. Empirical results reveal a profound structural divergence: SYN exhibit 'anti-fragile' resilience during economic stress, whereas cotton yarns appear 'stability-dependent,' suffering from high inflation and risk uncertainty. QQKRLS analysis indicates that while REER enhances synthetic competitiveness, its impact on cotton yarn is threshold-dependent. Furthermore, QQGC findings confirm that causal relationships are highly sensitive to export regimes, with CDS premiums exerting dominant pressure during extreme risk periods. These findings suggest that the Turkish textile industry requires product-specific industrial strategies to effectively mitigate global economic volatility. By introducing the 'anti-fragility' framework to sectoral export analysis, this study highlights the necessity for product-specific, state-dependent strategies rather than a 'one-size-fits-all' approach to enhance industrial resilience in emerging markets.