Scenario-Based Assessment of Thermal Performance, Battery Degradation, and Total Cost of Ownership for EV Battery Thermal Management in Tropical Logistics Operations

Abstract Battery thermal management affects electric-vehicle (EV) battery service life, replacement frequency, lifecycle cost, and the timing of battery entry into end-of-life (EOL) management systems. This study develops a deterministic scenario-based framework for tropical logistics operation by linking prescribed battery-temperature trajectories, state-of-health (SoH) decline, replacement events, and an eight-year total cost of ownership (TCO) model. Passive air cooling, reactive liquid cooling, and predictive pre-cooling are compared under a 28--38~$^\circ$C tropical peak-day profile. The respective peak battery temperatures are 51.07, 33.41, and 31.00~$^\circ$C, while first-pack 80\%-SoH crossing times are 3.43, 5.87, and 10.14 years. Over eight years, the three strategies produce two, one, and zero battery-replacement events, respectively. The resulting TCO values are USD~77,700, USD~72,500, and USD~62,000 per vehicle, giving predictive pre-cooling a 20.21\% saving relative to passive air cooling. Predictive pre-cooling also defers two traction-battery EOL entries per vehicle beyond the study horizon. The results indicate that improved thermal management can extend battery service life, reduce replacement-related cost, and slow battery material turnover, although the numerical results remain scenario-based and require experimental validation.