Predicting the Distribution of Yangshao Culture Sites by Integrating Natural Environment and Settlement Spatial Organization Characteristics

Abstract The Luoyang Basin is a dense concentration area of Yangshao culture sites in the Central Plains. This study uses collected Yangshao sites in the basin to examine their settlement distribution and its environmental drivers by applying global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses to reveal clustering patterns, and by constructing a Maxent model with factors such as elevation, slope, temperature, and precipitation to identify key controlling factors and suitable ranges. The results show that: (1) Yangshao-period sites in the study area exhibit spatial autocorrelation with pronounced clustering. Stagewise Global Moran’s I indicates that the floodplains along the Yi and Luo rivers and the terrace on the northern bank of the Luo River represent persistent high–high hotspots, reflecting a long-term preference for particular landscapes. (2) The average AUC of the Maxent model is 0.914; elevation contributes 68.6%, the minimum temperature of the coldest month 11.9%, and precipitation in the wet season 7.1%; together these three factors account for over 87%. (3) Highly suitable zones concentrate at elevations of 100–300 m on secondary terraces, with the coldest-month minimum temperature > -7.5°C, within 500–1500 m of waterways, and on low-slope (< 3°) flat land. (4) The potentially highly suitable areas show a “multi-core and river-aligned” pattern, mainly located in the Yi–Luo river belt and near the front edge of the loess terrace on the Luo River’s northern bank, where several large Yangshao settlements are concentrated. By integrating spatial structure characteristics with environmental factors in the Maxent model, the study reveals their joint driving role in prehistoric settlement siting and provides a reference analytical framework for predicting the potential distribution of prehistoric settlements.