Extending Granger causality to separate common cause in some cases
Extending Granger causality to tell a direct link from a hidden common cause: the earlier signal is whitened on the joint past, then a rank-based HCR test of residual independence with calibrated p-values is applied, which works when the innovations are non-Gaussian. Includes a one-file Python tool, a browser version, and checks on synthetic data, rivers, stock returns and microservice incidents.
Authors
- Jarek Duda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9559-809X)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23812697
- Primary Topic
- Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00