Extending Granger causality to separate common cause in some cases

Extending Granger causality to tell a direct link from a hidden common cause: the earlier signal is whitened on the joint past, then a rank-based HCR test of residual independence with calibrated p-values is applied, which works when the innovations are non-Gaussian. Includes a one-file Python tool, a browser version, and checks on synthetic data, rivers, stock returns and microservice incidents.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23812697
Primary Topic
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Extending Granger causality to separate common cause in some cases

Jarek Duda
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
article

Extending Granger causality to separate common cause in some cases

Jarek Duda
article en

Abstract

Extending Granger causality to tell a direct link from a hidden common cause: the earlier signal is whitened on the joint past, then a rank-based HCR test of residual independence with calibrated p-values is applied, which works when the innovations are non-Gaussian. Includes a one-file Python tool, a browser version, and checks on synthetic data, rivers, stock returns and microservice incidents.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Openalex Percentile: Top 14%
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
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Extending Granger causality to separate common cause in some cases — Jarek Duda · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS