Measles vaccination coverage and the 2023-2024 outbreak in Kazakhstan: official figures, WHO/UNICEF estimates, Central Asian countries and regions

Kazakhstan had one of the largest measles outbreaks in Europe and Central Asia in 2023-2024, with 15,111 cases reported to WHO in 2023 and 28,147 in 2024. This study compares what national and international sources say about measles vaccination coverage in Kazakhstan, sets the country beside Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and examines how the outbreak differed between regions. National statistics report that 99% of children were vaccinated by the age of two in 2023, whereas the latest WHO/UNICEF estimate (2025 revision) puts first-dose coverage at 69% in 2023 and 62% in 2024. The same estimates gave 99% for 2023 in their 2023 revision; the change follows a 2024 household survey whose use the Ministry of Health disputes. On the current estimates, about 608,000 children born in 2019-2023 had not received the first dose by the age of 12-23 months, before the 2023-2024 catch-up campaign. Across the four countries, coverage does not predict outbreak size: Uzbekistan, at 99% coverage, had 576 cases per million in 2024 and Kyrgyzstan, at 91-96%, 1,991, while Tajikistan, at about 80%, reported none. Within Kazakhstan, official regional figures varied widely: East, North and West Kazakhstan had 38.1, 45.2 and 69.1 cases per 100,000 in 2023, against 149.4 nationally. National averages, of both coverage and cases, hide where susceptible children are, and the disagreement over coverage itself needs to be resolved before coverage can be linked to the outbreak.