Inevitability of the Petz transpose map

Bayes' rule is central to classical statistical inference: given a prior and a stochastic model, it determines the corresponding retrodictive conditional probabilities. In quantum theory, however, the question of whether an equally general rule of retrodiction exists and, if so, whether it is uniquely determined remains nontrivial. Here we prove that a retrodiction assignment defined for all priors and channels, which takes each predicted output state back to its prior, must coincide with the Petz transpose map if it is involutive, respects sequential and parallel composition, and agrees with unitary inversion. The theorem holds for channels between finite-dimensional full matrix algebras, with the input and output spaces restricted to the supports of the corresponding reference states. In particular, affinity under probabilistic mixtures and the characteristic square-root dependence on the reference states follow from these requirements rather than being postulated. Without involutivity, the remaining requirements characterize a family of doubly rotated Petz maps. Our result thus explains why the Petz transpose map arises in seemingly different areas of quantum theory: it is the unique quantum analogue of Bayes' rule compatible with these consistency requirements.