Optimizing the Resume: A Strategic and Analytical Framework for Mid-Major Non-Conference Scheduling

Securing an at-large bid into the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament represents one of the most lucrative yet elusive achievements for many mid-major college basketball programs. With conference schedules already predetermined, a mid-major team’s non-conference schedule serves as its primary mechanism to build a tournament-worthy resume. This thesis examines the intersection of predictive analytics, selection committee criteria, and strategic non-conference scheduling for mid-major programs. Beginning with a historical overview of the NCAA Tournament and the evolution of metrics from the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) to the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), this study analyzes how the current selection committee evaluates resume strength, Quadrant victories, and strength of schedule (SOS). To bridge the gap between quantitative metrics and real-world administrative constraints, interviews were conducted with basketball staff and athletic personnel across many prominent mid-major programs. Combining selection data analytics with insights from athletic directors and coaches regarding buy-games, home-and-home contracts, multi-team events, and financial considerations, this thesis presents a comprehensive non-conference scheduling framework tailored for mid-major programs to maximize their team’s probability of earning an at-large bid to March Madness.