Work or Study? Post-16 Pathways, Degree Attainment and Adult Life at 32

Progressing through education and into secure employment is central to young adults’ wellbeing and long-term life chances. Using longitudinal data, this study examines how different post-16 educational and employment pathways shape labour market and wider life outcomes by age 32. Building on earlier research on post-16 transitions, we classify young people according to their activities between ages 17 and 20 and whether they attained a degree by age 32, distinguishing routes that lead to similar destinations through different trajectories.We investigate the factors associated with pathway membership and assess their consequences for employment, earnings, job quality, home ownership, life satisfaction, and psychological distress. The findings show that transitions from education to work are diverse rather than linear, and are strongly shaped by prior attainment, socioeconomic background, family expectations, and available resources. These pathways have lasting implications for outcomes in adulthood.While the traditional academic route is associated with the highest economic returns, vocational and work-based pathways can also support successful transitions, particularly where they provide opportunities for continued learning and progression. The greatest divide is not between university and non-university routes, but between pathways characterised by sustained engagement and those marked by educational or labour market disengagement. In addition, there are substantial gender inequalities in employment, working hours, and pay by age 32.The findings highlight the importance of reducing educational inequalities, preventing disengagement in the late teens, and supporting progression through high-quality vocational, work-based, and academic pathways. Policy should recognise diverse routes into adulthood and ensure equitable access to opportunities for learning, employment, and advancement.