Climate-based suitability scenario models for high-protein crop cultivation in Europe

Despite several concurrent environmental and nutritional benefits, protein crop production in the EU remains low, and imports remain high. Therefore, a knowledge gap exists in relation to the suitability of different protein crops in Europe and how this may change under future climates. In this research, we aimed to identify areas conducive to cultivating human-grade, high-protein crops. To achieve this, we used species distribution modelling, combining locations for eight economically important protein crops with 1-km geospatial data on climate, topography and soil to project current and future distributions across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We identified large areas of agricultural lands suitable for crop-specific expansion, with all species showing sensitivity to future conditions, diversifying across and within projections and timescales. For example, faba increases in suitability across Spain, Turkey, and Greece, while oat shifts its suitability northwards towards Norway and Sweden. In general, faba, lupins and peas substantially increase in suitability under future scenarios, while quinoa and perennial ryegrass decline, soy and oats remain stable. Importantly, all areas (i.e. every individual pixel in the model) retain a suitability above a minimum threshold, meaning there should always be an optimal protein crop for that area, at that time, regardless of the climate scenario. By identifying the agricultural areal extent of suitability for each European country across the different crops, we provide targeted figures to inform decision-making and support European-specific targets such as the EU protein strategy and the current Common Agricultural Policy aiming to increase native, high-protein crop production by 2050.